IMD predicts normal monsoon, forecasts 97 per cent rainfall

According to CLFMA forecast of yet another normal monsoon year is indeed a good news and will help Indian livestock sector in multiple ways

The all India weather inference, issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), stated that a cyclonic circulation at 1.5 kilometres above sea level is present over central parts of south Madhya Pradesh and neighbouring areas.

IMD's forecast of 97% rainfall comes with a model error of (plus-minus) 5%.

Monsoon in 2017 recorded below normal rains.

India's weather office defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 cms for the entire four-month season beginning June.

A normal monsoon will not only aid agriculture growth but could have a positive impact on the overall rural economy crucial for the ruling BJP government as it faces critical state elections followed by the big National Polls in 2019. A normal monsoon is in the range of 96-104 percent of the LPA.

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Despite "normal" forecast, the monsoon can be affected by the El Niño conditions.

A good monsoon is good news for the Indian economy.

The date of onset of monsoon will be announced in the middle of May. Anything between 90-96 per cent of the LPA is considered "below normal". Forecast on distribution of rainfall and prediction on monthly rains for July, August and September will be made by the IMD in early June.

According to the weatherman, below 90 per cent rainfall is considered deficient and at 95 per cent it is considered below normal. India had faced deficient rains during monsoon season in 2015 and 2014, making both these years drought years.

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